
Will China launch a blockade of 1+ Taiwanese port for 10+ days in 2025?
Plus
27
Ṁ47532026
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Associated Press or New York Times (or other similarly reputable new source) reports that the People's Republic of China has implemented a blockade against Taiwan and the blockade has lasted at least 10 days or has been lifted by Taiwanese military forces or by military forces of Taiwanese allies.
A Chinese blockade has closed access to 1+ major Taiwanese ports including but not limited to: Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung, and Taipei. This closure has lasted at least 10 days or the blockade has been lifted by Taiwanese military forces or by military forces of Taiwanese allies.
No outlying islands (kinmen, etc.) count
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
@ian yeah, esp since afaik USG had stated clearly that those are not enough to trigger an intervention
Related questions
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
35% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025
7% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
8% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
31% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
16% chance
Will China institute a naval blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2025?
12% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2025?
6% chance
China blockades Taiwan in 2025? (media reports)
16% chance
Will China invade or blockade Taiwan by the end 2025?
19% chance