A violent revolution for this question is defined as a definable movement pitting the populus against the government. This would involve the participation of at least 1% of the populace. A civil war is defined as an armed malitia or state backed group representing at least 1 million citicens going to war with the US military. The specifics of these definitions may be changed within a few weeks of creating the market by participants request , but my goal is to to keep them in line as much as possible with their actual definitions.
1,000
3.00Semi-arb versus https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-the-us-have-a-revolution-befor
The linked market requires an actual regime change but this one only requires an attempt that gets categorized as civil war
@Joshua historical trends. I've been convinced for many years that the US will undergo significant upheaval in or near our lifetimes. that could be a bloodless transition, a societal collapse, civil war, or any number of other things, but most of these will inevitably involve conflict.