Who will win FOLDED?

Ṁ29k

2026

42%

@retr0id

29%

@koadma

29%

@LoganTurner

@remedyrain (Wott)

Resolves to the user who wins FOLDED. The winner resolves YES and the losers resolve NO. If multiple users win, all winning options will resolve YES. If no one wins, (game is cancelled, etc.) all options resolve NO. Players who are eliminated will resolve NO as they are removed from the game.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Fun

#Manifold

#Manifold Users

#Manifold User Retention

#FOLDED

#Endurance Sports

Get

1,000

and

3.00

25 Comments

49 Holders

905 Trades

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@mods Nikki resolves NO

@mods SimonWestlake resolves NO

bought Ṁ147 NO

@mods @evan resolves no

@traders

I am going to extend the close dates for evan's FOLDED markets by a year to allow trading. IIUC these previously were frequently closing/reopening but that won't be able to continue, and the main impact of that is to preserve liquidity, so instead it makes sense just to extend these indefinitely. but FOLDED participants can LMK if there's something else that should be done instead.

@mods Close date needs extending 😘

there is 100% chance retr0id wins because average hacker who never touch grass

@121 higher probability of dying before FOLDED ends from vitamin D deficiency

@121 my limit orders are open if you'd like to bet

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 10% order

Looking to reduce my bet, so there's a nice limit order up for anyone who doesn't think koadma will win

@koadma honestly it would make the most sense for you to take this so that you're guaranteed to either make money from the market or win the game

bought Ṁ10 NO

@SimonWestlake done!

@SimonWestlake btw, i think you are overestimating my win chances. When I bought my YES shares, I thought the game will have higher difficulty platforming with which I might have had an edge compared to others.

Without failstates I estimate that at least a Celeste/Core level difficulty would be needed for others to give up. However, the game turned out to be easy wrt platformer skills (and seems to get easier and easier, eg low hp worm even though the original was already trivial) and leans more on puzzles, and unfortunately, I'm not good at those and would have probably failed already at the playfair one without cheesing..