Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070? | Manifold

Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?

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2069

43%

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"broken" means some entity could actually decrypt it in less than 2 years with the amount of compute they have, without possessing the key, and without side-channel leaks.

(Resolution criteria adapted from a similar market:

Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2033?

)

I know very little about cryptography but have been considering AES-256 to encrypt blog posts, with key to be published posthumously.

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lmao why are people still betting this up

I very firmly think no (probability <1%), but I'm not going to bet, for keynesian beauty contest reasons

The NSA allows the "Advanced Encryption Standard (AES), per FIPS 197, using 256 bit keys to protect up to TOP SECRET" data. (Potentially decades or longer until declassification.) It's believed to be quantum resistant.

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