Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030? | Manifold

Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?

Plus

45

Ṁ5194

2031

38%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

RSA-256

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https://manifold.markets/dieselbaby1337/will-a-quantum-computer-prove-capab

Is there a difference between these two markets?

@adssx That market concerns RSA-2048, whereas this one is RSA-256

bought Ṁ50 NO

I sure hope not.

At that small key size why would you bother with a quantum computer?

At which key size?

@Dig As another comment hinted, a modulus of this size has already been factored by a classical computer decades ago.

IMHO, seems like this market should probably resolve YES on account of this fact. Perhaps you would say that this doesn't meet the criteria because "quantum computing" wasn't involved? But in that case, it seems like we should clarify what qualifies as "quantum computing" here.

@BoltonBailey Yes, I'd say it resolves YES on this basis. RSA-256 is trivially broken on a laptop, and if you arbitrarily involve a quantum computer with one of the steps (adding two small numbers...) then you've just used a quantum computer to break RSA-256

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