Who will be the last standing SCOTUS justice?

Plus

Ṁ2397

2121

22%

Neil Gorsuch

18%

Amy Coney Barrett

18%

Ketanji Brown Jackson

17%

Brett Kavanaugh

12%

Elena Kagan

12%

John Roberts

10%

Samuel Alito

Sonia Sotomayor

Clarence Thomas

The idea of this market is to predict the order in which justices will leave office.

I will add options as new justices are sworn in.

I will resolve a justice's market with a percentage when they leave office, either by stepping down, being removed or by death.

The n-th person to leave will be resolved with (n-1)%. For instance, the first justice to leave will be resolved with NO, and the second one with 1%. All justices that step down after the 100th will be resolved with YES.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#SCOTUS

#Supreme Court

#US Judiciary

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1,000

and

3.00

7 Comments

13 Holders

141 Trades

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@NicoDelon buying Gorsuch to 40%?!? You think 38 justices will leave the court before him?

@mattyb I didn’t read the description. My bad.

@NicoDelon no sweat. i do feel badly snatching up ignorant trades when these all should be <10%

@mattyb That said I was focusing on the order rather than the price. Given that these are the only names we have, I think Gorsuch and ACB will outlive all of the other ones. But I agree with you that they’re all absurdly overpriced. Brown Jackson was especially overpriced. Just because she’s the latest doesn’t mean she’ll outlive everybody.

bought Ṁ10 NO

The n-th person to leave will be resolved with (n-1)%

So the 9th judge Resolves to 9%. These all should be near 5%

@mattyb the 9th judge resolves to 8%, this is because the first one will be resolved to 0%.

opened a Ṁ1 NO at 26% order

@costlySignal thanks. these should all be at 4% then

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