Will any of the remaining hostages taken by Hamas on October 7 return home alive before the end of 2024?
Plus
36
Ṁ2435Dec 31
54%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if any additional live hostages (after September 1) are rescued, escape, or released from Hamas captivity. If only bodies are recovered, market resolves NO.
Only includes hostages taken by Hamas as part of the October 7 2023 attack. Any hostages taken before or after this date do not count.
Market will resolve at 11:59PM on December 31, 2024.
EDIT: If no hostaged have been rescued, the market will end at 11:59 PM on December 31, 2024. If live hostages are reported rescued, escaped, or released, I will resolve the market after seeing it reported by at least 2 reputable news agencies as confirmed by the IDF.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Hamas Leaders Killed or Captured by Israel before end of 2024
Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025
60% chance
Will Hamas negotiate to release more 10/7 hostages before a permanent ceasefire ?
38% chance
Will Israel free another living hostage by military means by 2025?
64% chance
Will Hamas still control Gaza at the end of 2024?
81% chance
Will Hamas hold territory in the Gaza Strip at the end of 2024?
65% chance
When will the hostages be released by Hamas?
Will Hamas surrender by the end of 2024
10% chance
Will Hamas surrender in 2024?
6% chance
How many hostages will be rescued from Gaza/Hamas?