Following October 7 events, there are currently 101 Israeli hostages in Gaza strip.
This question resolve YES if at the end of 2025, the Wikipedia page of Israel Hamas Hostage Crisis, say that there is at least one Israeli hostage in Gaza that were abducted in oct 7 (not including the 4 abducted earlier).
Otherwise, this question will resolve as NO.
If there are overwelming evidence (according to global media) that all the hostages are dead, this will also resolve as no.
Update 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Details:
To resolve as NO, there must be clear evidence such as official declarations from the state of Israel stating that all remaining hostages are dead, or definitive actions by Hamas indicating no live hostages remain.
If Hamas claims to still have live hostages and there is no contradictory evidence, the market will resolve as YES.
Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will NOT resolve immediately despite all known living hostages being freed. Creator acknowledges the possibility that a supposedly "dead" hostage could be announced as alive after the second phase of the deal, though considers this extremely unlikely. Creator is considering resolving NO now but has not yet done so.
Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will NOT resolve immediately despite CNN report that all living hostages have been freed. Creator does not consider the CNN report as "overwhelming evidence that all the hostages are dead" and suspects Hamas may hold some hostages alive and later provide evidence of their deaths. Market will wait longer before resolving.
1,000
3.00CNN: "For the first time in more than two years, Hamas and its allies in Gaza are not holding any living hostages. All of the 20 hostages who were still alive and held in Gaza are now in Israeli custody."(https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hamas-gaza-hostages-ceasefire-10-13-25)
i guess this can either resolve now, or we wait three months to see of hamas takes one of the same people as october 7th hostage again?
@brod
> hamas takes one of the same people as october 7th hostage again
One could argue that the title says "Will there still be Israeli hostages..." - so taking one of them hostage again should not qualify, because that's an "again", not a "still" 😉
Anyway, should resolve NO now.
There is another possibility, one of the supposedly "dead" hostages, will be announced as alive after the second phase of the deal.
I think this is extremely unlikely, and I do consider resolve it right now as NO
@brod
i dont consider this CNN report as "overwhelming evidence that all the hostages are dead"
I suspect that Hamas holds some of them alive and later on will provide evidence that they are dead. I think its very unlikely (i sold my yes), but since it is a possibility, I think we should wait a bit more.
@CarmelHadar Some remains may never be found. What's the timeline when you plan to resolve this market?
“Hamas plans to release all 20 living hostages this weekend, people familiar with the matter told The Associated Press, while the Israeli military will begin a withdrawal from the majority of Gaza.”
Hope this is true!
@JaundicedBaboon another related market (if there is a ceasefire, releasing the hostages in stages will maintain it)
https://manifold.markets/VonGadke/gaza-ceasefire-in-2025?r=Q2h1bWNodWx1bQ
@PoliticalEconomyPK
do you think? Give us your analysis of the results of the assassination. i think it can go both ways.
Khalil al-Hayya was part of the reason that the negotiation was stuck, he didnt have skin in the game, and he didnt care that the war will be long.
@CarmelHadar I actually doubt anyone is a hindrance to negotiations, solely because we have heard this before. Exactly each time after each of the sinwar brothers got killed. Even then israeli journalists were saying this would be good for negotiations.
@PoliticalEconomyPK
look, i dont think that full return of the hostages is possible anyway (you can see my bets), its against the motives of the negotiators, but i do think the assassination increases the probability of a deal (probably partial).
but they are religious fanatics, so who knows.
@CarmelHadar I think the biggest obstacle right now is Netanyahu’s coalition. From Israel’s side, it feels like a deliberate choice to hold on to power instead of putting people first. That choice has already cost lives on both sides and dragged out the war for months. Without the pressure from his far-right partners, a deal might have been possible much earlier. We’ve already seen several near-missed agreements in 2025 that could have changed the course of things.
I am far from far right, and I do not think that the current agreement is something that Israel can accept.
The current terms that Hamas has agreed upon, are ones that keeps him on power, and allow him to resupply his weapon stocks later. Israel cannot accept that if they want to live peacefully. It's irrational to only think short term, and accept such a deal.
The reason I've open this market is to show how people delude themselves that a full deal is possible. People prefer wishful thinking over understanding and analyzing the motives and interest. Hamas cannot accept a full deal, because that leaves him with zero leverage. It's irrational of them to give up all thier cards (assuming that they don't care much of the suffering of their people)
@CarmelHadar to be clear, can you clarify what you mean by "current terms" because there are competing claims online where people are saying one party is agreeing and the other is not