Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025
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Following October 7 events, there are currently 101 Israeli hostages in Gaza strip.

This question resolve YES if at the end of 2025, the Wikipedia page of Israel Hamas Hostage Crisis, say that there is at least one Israeli hostage in Gaza that were abducted in oct 7 (not including the 4 abducted earlier).

Otherwise, this question will resolve as NO.

If there are overwelming evidence (according to global media) that all the hostages are dead, this will also resolve as no.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war_hostage_crisis#:~:text=Holding%20hostages%3A&text=72%20hostages%20were%20reportedly%20killed,other%20four%20hostages%20captured%20earlier

  • Update 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Details:

    • To resolve as NO, there must be clear evidence such as official declarations from the state of Israel stating that all remaining hostages are dead, or definitive actions by Hamas indicating no live hostages remain.

    • If Hamas claims to still have live hostages and there is no contradictory evidence, the market will resolve as YES.

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bought Ṁ250 YES

Of course there will. The savages will never agree to release them all, and international pressure will step in to protect the baby-torturers and stop Israel rescuing the hostages from them.

Where will they be hidden? In one of the new Trump Towers?

@Shai do you think that the population transfer will ends before 2025?

@CarmelHadar I'm not every sure a transfer is likely, I was just kidding.

@Shai yeah i figured, what i actually meant was:

I don't see a reason to update my bet following Trump statements.

To be clear, this question specifically relates to the people who were made hostage on october 7th 2023. Not anyone already a hostage before October 7th. Right?

Also, if on 31st December 2023 there is/are hostage(s) in gaza but its clear to everyone that there arent any alive hostages, how then will you resolve?

@PoliticalEconomyPK

Yes, I think I made that clear, this does not include hostages before Oct 7.

I will assume you meant 31 Dec 25.

In that case it will be reslolve as NO. But it should be quite clear, (something like state of Israel post official declaration that all the remaining are dead, or Hamas do something like that, if it's still under dispute, and Hamas will claim they still have live hostages, and there no contradictory evidence, it will resolve as YES)

@CarmelHadar yes sorry for the typo 2025

4 more released today

@smokey
it seems that Hamas fighters found their uniforms, after they couldn't find them since the first day of the war. interesting.

@smokey it's interesting the contrast between how well Hamas treats Israeli hostages (even when they're literally idf) versus how poorly Israel treats palestinian hostages (even when they're obviously innocent children)

@Ammar These girls report sleeping on the floor over long periods, eating as little as one pita a day and being psychologically tortured by being told Israel has been completely destroyed. One of them was held alone in a tunnel.

And this is just what they've opened up about in the few days since they've been released...

I understand you want Palestinians to be treated better by the IDF, and I do too, but lying about Hamas treating hostages well is gross.

@Shai proof they slept on the floor:

@smokey I'm pretty sure 'on the floor' means with no mattress

@Shai mm but that ny-times article is really interesting (no paywall)

@Shai israel bombs most homes and severely limits food from trying to enter gaza. Hamas has to sleep on the floors and eat only a piece of bread a day. Do you expect their hostages to be in mansions and offer buffets?

While in israel rape, amputations, and literal murder of Palestinian hostages with no link to Hamas, many are children.

I'm not steel manning your point, but I don't think I can try while remaining honest. The context is "the contrast between how well Hamas treats Israeli hostages (even when they're literally idf) versus how poorly Israel treats Palestinian hostages". If you're way around that is to focus on the hostages sleeping on the floor likely due to Israel bombing homes, I'm not sure there's room for a productive conversation.

@Ammar Why do you feel the need to defend a terrorist's organization treatment of hostages?

@Shai I'm not defending Israel. But also nice distraction from acknowledging what I said.

@Ammar What you said simply isn't true. Israel allows hundreds of humanitarian aid trucks to enter Gaza daily, many of which are raided by Hamas, who limit civilian access to them. So no, Hamas members do not "eat only a piece of bread a day".

Israel does not hold Palestinian "hostages". Every single prisoner is either a terrorist with blood on their hands, someone who attempted a terrorist attack, or someone who conspired to commit acts of terror. Even the women and children. (See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pisgat_Ze%27ev_stabbings, https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/man-hurt-in-jerusalem-terror-stabbing-palestinian-teen-attacker-caught/amp/, https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/palestinian-terrorism/israeli-girl-killed-in-bed-after-stabbing-attack/)

There are also Jewish settlers who are considered terrorists by Israel and up until recently were arrested in the same process.

I don't think you realize what is happening here. Israelis have to deal with stabbing attacks on a daily basis. Sometimes reaching 3 attacks per day.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%932016_wave_of_violence_in_the_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict#:~:text=Between%20October%202015%20and%20March,carrying%20out%20attacks%20on%20Israelis.

Hamas is a genocidal terrorist organization, and we saw well in October 7 that their goal is to kill as many Jews as possible. Would you rather we let them continue arming until they succeed?

do we have like a list where they're keeping track of how many have returned as of today, and how many are confirmed dead, and theyre bodies are to be returned

bought Ṁ10 YES

Ngl, I'm kinda expecting a kind of MIA-POW movement to spring up and muddy the waters just enough to make resolving this a pain 😛

@Marnix they kinda pop up like gremlins under any straightforward question.

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 20% order

A lot of movement today...

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1847006929790685652
@CarmelHadar
Footage from Sinwar's last moments. Not quite the "classic hostage situation" you envisioned.

@Shai yeah, quite surprising I must say.

But IDF claims that the 6 hostages that were excuted were near him, but when he was force to leave he excite them, and left with non.

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