@traders I'm extending the close date to end of year (December 31). The resolution will be based on the number of hostages rescued by that date.

@PlainBG
why? (not that it matters really, but i cant sea a reason for extension)

@traders I am not up to date on the hostage situation esp how many have been rescued as of today. If you have more context, would appreciate any reliable links or articles. And don't forget to arbitrage and profit if there is mispricing 😃

@PlainBG A total of 117 hostages have been released so far including 8 who have been reached by the IDF.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67477240

Here is a similar market that might interest the participants

https://manifold.markets/CarmelHadar/will-there-still-be-israeli-hostage#l3mni1z0g2a

I made a market specifically about rescue.

@PlainBG Is this only Israeli hostages, as the title says, or also foreigners, as the description suggests?

@Shump I will count both Israeli and foreign nationals.

"Hamas can draw out the cease-fire for up to nine days according to the current agreement"

This means possibly 90 Israeli hostages, in addition to the 20 or so foreign hostages will be released during the ceasefire. But we are just past day 1

Related:

Is this closing on November ninth?

@JaimeSantaCruz Just changed it to Nov 1, 2024

For those hostages who are not rescued: https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-the-idf-kill-more-of-hamass-re?r=UGFuZmlsbw

Will the IDF kill more of Hamas's recently taken hostages than Hamas does?

40% chance. This refers to the ~100–250 hostages taken in the raids on Israel by Hamas (and PIJ and other groups) in October 2023, and currently kept captive in Gaza. This market will be resolved once the total number of hostages and their total deaths while hostage are acknowledged by major international media in a non-editorial context, to the best of my knowledge. Freed hostages do not count for this market. Unintentional deaths count based on which side launched the ordnance or fired the gun. Deaths by natural causes (including starvation/dehydration) will not count, unless the siege is lifted, after which they will count as inflicted by Hamas. If the hostage crisis comes to a close with an equal number of deaths inflicted by both sides (including zero) then this will resolve to No. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kidnappings_during_the_2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war

This includes only the ones in Gaza, right? Not those who were hostages in Israel and were already freed.

@Shump Yes this is correct. At the moment about 100-150 hostages are reported to be held in various locations in Gaza.