Resolves YES if it is known that a Manifold staff member or moderator has been punished or arrested by law enforcement for committing a misdemeanor or felony in their jurisdiction after this question has been created.
Punishments include fines, prison time and corporal punishment administered by a legal system.
The staff member or moderator need not have committed the crime in question, they just need to be punished for it.
Generally, if the crime will go on a criminal record, it'll count as YES for this market.
If the crime is charged in a foreign jurisdiction but the accused user never gets punished for it, then it will still resolve YES.
For reference, here is the result of a survey on Manifold users about how often they commit crimes. The scale is 0, “I have never committed a crime,” to 10, “I commit serious crimes on a daily basis.”
Related markets:
1,000
3.00To be clear, being charged with a crime in a foreign jurisdiction and never arrested for it wouldn't count, correct? What if they're convicted in abstentia? What if fines are levied but never paid?
There exist states/places/situations where something dumb like parking a car in the wrong place can turn into a misdemeanor. And depending on which state, many other minor traffic violations (speeding, etc.) can be a misdemeanor. I see there has already been discussion on this point but I think it bears repeating.
We also don't know how many moderators there might be before the market closes, maybe we'll have 5x as many!
I was assuming arrest counts as punishment but I agree that is good to make clear if so
@bohaska I don't care since the correlation will be strong enough to not change the odds much, but in principle they're different things - someone can be arrested and found not guilty. The legal system has a presumption of innocence. Include it if you like but in principle there is a bright line in between those things IMHO.
Edit: including it explicitly means you're not implying they're the same thing which is fine.
@chrisjbillington I added it, not because I think guilty until proven innocent, but, for example, if SBF was a Manifold staff, and this market was "before 2024", even though we're sure something fishy happened, his sentencing happens like more than a year in the future.
@firstuserhere Well, speeding by itself wouldn't cause this market to resolve YES, as they usually don't go on your criminal record or stuff like that, but if David accidentally causes an accident on the highway and is punished for it, then YES.
...this resolves yes if any moderator, past, present or future (before 2025) has (ever) gotten a speeding fine?
@chrisjbillington Depends on whether it is charged as an infraction (no) or a misdemeanor (yes).
Also, the question only refers to punishments after creation date.
@bohaska I just looked up, and https://www.legalmatch.com/law-library/article/misdemeanor-traffic-offenses.html says that
Traffic offenses are classified as misdemeanors when the offense results in injury to people or property, or when the offense does not result in such injury but constitutes a “near-miss.”
@bohaska Thanks. Not all jurisdictions use these terms, but it sounds like "could possibly result in jail time" is the distinction between misdemeanor and infraction, so that should translate pretty well, and ought to be pretty close to "could go on a criminal record".
@chrisjbillington No one I know has gotten a speeding ticket that I know of in my entire time as an adult in California. I think speed limits are more of a suggestion.
@Joshua That may be, but not all mods are in CA and 3km/h over the limit is enforced where I live. Nonetheless speeding fines don't count, so I won't be betting YES on that basis.
@Joshua In Australia if you pay an expiation notice it typically comes with no admission of guilt or any permanent affects. It’s basically like a settlement agreement
Having said that, I’ve never had a speeding ticket
Edit: nor have I any marks on my “permanent record”