Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2026?
Basic
11
Ṁ3892027
75%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Chinchilla presented The Scaling Laws
I'll not hold more than 10 shares in this market, though may make small token bets once in a while.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2027?
67% chance
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
37% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
68% chance
What organization will have the top language model on LMSys overall leaderboards December 1st 2024?
Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?
51% chance
Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?
44% chance
Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?
54% chance
Will software-side AI scaling appear to be suddenly discontinuous before 2025?
18% chance
Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
65% chance