@mods Can we get a definition of "super grandmaster" for purposes of this market? I propose any GM with an official rating over 2700 at the time of the game.

creator is a deleted account (firstuserhere), which is why I'm sending this to mods.

@DanielTilkin This market fits the criteria to be taken over by a moderator but I have no special domain knowledge for Chess beyond an average person on the street. Your suggestion seems reasonable and if no one protests it within a week, let's make it stand.

Any other moderator who wishes to take over control of this market should chime in. @Bayesian I know you have mentioned chess before.

yeah 2700+ Elo is super GM

i volunteer to take this market over

Clarifications:

Does it actually have to play a game or can we derive this being true from its ELO score against say Stockfish?
I assume this is considered "true" already for Deepmind due to MuZero?

@Uaaar33 I agree. This should already resolve YES because of MuZero. It wasnt created specifically for chess and it is A LOT more general than just a "chess engine". Also I am guessing at least one super grandmaster lost at least once against it (maybe not, idk).

MuZero wasn’t created by OpenAI so should not resolve to YES yet

@Usaar33 The match has to actually happen / be publicly known to have happened

AIs in 2028 will probably be optimized for planning and accomplishing common economically useful real-world tasks, but beating a super grandmaster at chess is pretty specialized. I would guess that even a very smart human - say, Leonardo da Vinci or Terence Tao - would probably have to work quite hard to attain that level of chess-playing, so I doubt that an AI could do it without at least some specialized fine-tuning.

Also, I'm not sure that a super grandmaster would try playing one of these generalized AIs by 2028, even if it had the capability to beat them.

If someone designs a new chess AI like that, some top streamer like Hikaru would definitely try playing against it.

@CDBiddulph mu zero presumably would qualify here. This has already been achieved by other labs.

Is it allowed to utilise other AIs like how some LLMs solve math with Wolthram Mathematica or must the entire process be OpenAI?

@TheAllMemeingEye yes the system's shouldbbe entirely OpenAI

An LLM or a chess AI such as alphago ?

@Odoacre any AI not made specifically and only for chess.