Will a paper or report, with >=1 turing award winner as an author, suggest that an AI system is conscious, by 2024 end?
Will a paper or report, with >=1 turing award winner as an author, suggest that an AI system is conscious, by 2024 end?
➕
Plus
21
Ṁ685
Dec 31
10%
chance

Expansion of the title as follows. Not exhaustive.

  1. The paper or report must be submitted on arxiv

  2. Must have one or more turning award winners (counting as on the date of this question creation)

  3. The report can suggest or imply or straight up claim that an AI system is conscious. If it's "likely conscious" on the scale, then we will resolve this to yes.

I'll not bet on this market

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y
1y

>If the conclusion is "maybe conscious" then we will conduct a poll.

Would this poll be about whether the system is conscious, or whether the Turing award winner subjectively thinks the system is conscious?

1y

@Nick332 Thinking about this, I'm removing this from the criteria. Needless ambiguity. In case of authors stating "maybe conscious" or "might be conscious", we do not count it. Needs to definitely point in a direction.

1y

One mana in pure profit 👍

1y

If AI's conscious, I can win 69 mana 😂

1y

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules