Will I believe any AI system is conscious before 2027?
Basic
4
Ṁ212027
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Needs 95% confidence to resolve YES. I am probably somewhere around 20% for current models and likely need to see interpretability research suggesting this to get to high confidence.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
63% chance
Will a conscious computer be built before 2050?
69% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
38% chance
Will a major AI company acknowledge the possibility of conscious AIs by 2026?
85% chance
By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
33% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
26% chance
What will Rob Long's credence be that there exists a conscious AI system at end of 2024?
17% chance
Will I have a convincing video call with a fully synthetic AI avatar before July 2025?
45% chance
Will an AI simulate human consciousness by 2100?
74% chance
Will an AI system show emergent capabilities in psychotherapy before 2028 ?
61% chance