https://www.newsweek.com/jd-vance-says-deeper-cuts-possible-government-shutdown-10867289

VP Vance. Deeper cuts as the shutdown continues

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/10/trump-russ-vought-layoffs-government-shutdown.html

OMB Vought RIFs have begun and are substantial.

@brianwang about 4k

FRED release is... delayed I guess? Was supposed to be released this morning but perhaps the shutdown affected that?

@bens https://news.research.stlouisfed.org/2025/09/a-u-s-government-shutdown-could-delay-some-fred-data-2/

Federal employment data in FRED, from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, is based on payrolls for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. For September 2025, that pay period includes September 12, so layoffs at midnight on September 30 wouldn't affect it.

https://www.bls.gov/respondents/ces/faqs.htm#3

https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/general/plans/dol-contingency-plan.pdf

I've just heard they're starting to re-hire for people fired by DOGE, and potentially at greater numbers than the amount that were fired. Doesn't seem like the firings are keeping up pace with the hirings at this point.

@EliGaultney although there's also the talk about letting people go en-masse during the shutdown

@Mmmmm Yeah, furloughed employees wouldn't count, but using the shutdown as a pretext to actually fire furloughed people would. The question is, who would they fire during a furlough that they wouldn't fire otherwise?

manifolder?

@brod or maybe someone with inside info :)

@brod god this market is still so underpriced but I’ve sunk so much into it already

@bens wait. shutdown soon. bullish

@brod 😉

pretty incredible that we're 9 months into the year and have 8 data points and this is still just a coin flip.

Why are poly ( https://polymarket.com/event/of-jobs-elon-and-doge-cut-in-2025?tid=1757524386226 ) and kalshi ( https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfedemployees/federal-government-employee-count ) so far apart?

@FergusArgyll I believe Polymarket is using Dec 2024 (3.012 million) minus Dec 2025, and Kalshi is using Jan 2025 (3.015 million) minus Jan 2026.

@travis ah so one month fewer to swing?

Idk how much sense that makes if we expect the numbers that push us above 200/250k to happen in November. IMO that hints at irrationality on the YES side of this trade

@travis That's not quite right, though. Neither this market nor the Kalshi one is going to wait until Jan 2026 data is available in order to resolve. Strictly 'before 2026'.

@BorisBartlog I guess you're right. So they really are far apart. You can buy over 200k on Polymarket for 53 cents and under 250k on Kalshi for 40 cents. I bought some of the under on Kalshi.

ok, the second funniest way for this market to resolve would be if the government shuts down and BLS doesn't update the underlying stats.

August jobs data has 2,918k, total decline of 97k from the January value of 3,017. Linear extrapolation to a full year gives a total decline of about 166k.

It should be noted that many expect a large decline to show up next month due to the expiry of the DOGE buyouts period, it is not clear how many of those who took the DOGE offer are still on payroll.

Even if we assume that 100% of the 154k buyouts are still on the payroll how do they think they can get to 300k?

@MachiNi I'm a No voter on this so far, but I suppose the Yes bull case is that there's a lot of attrition this administration, just due to how difficult a lot of the current political leadership are to work for. If the number falls by anything close 150k next month I'll probably switch over to a Yes.