Context:

The US Justice Department is investigating crypto predictions-betting platform Polymarket for allegedly accepting trades from US-based users, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation executed a search warrant on Shayne Coplan, Polymarket’s chief executive officer, and seized his phone and electronics, according to the person who asked for anonymity to discuss non-public matters.

Under an agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reached in 2022, Polymarket is to prevent US-based traders from making transactions on the platform.(Bloomberg)

Resolution:

• Resolves YES if there is a consensus of credible reporting that the Department of Justice is no longer actively investigating Polymarket anytime before EOD April 30th.

• Resolves YES if the DoJ completes its investigation with no charges, penalties, or any form of punishment, including before Trump's inauguration.

• Resolves NO if DoJ completes its investigation and is punished in any form.

• Resolves NO if there is no consensus of credible reporting that the investigation is no longer active.

  • That is, as a default, in the absence of further evidence, this resolves assuming that the investigation is continuing.

  • However, the bar for evidence that the investigation has been halted will be fairly low.

  • Reporting saying anything like "Trump tells the DoJ to not bother investigating Polymarket" + no further word that they're investigating would be sufficient for YES.

  • TL;DR: the DoJ may not publicize all of its activities. But if Trump is exerting pressure to call off the investigation, I expect there will be reporting about that, and I will have a low evidentiary bar to accept that reporting.