Will there be riots involving Jewish / Arab citizens in Israel comparable to the 2021 riots as a result of 10/7 attack?
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On 10/7, Hamas attacked Israel, Israel went on a counteroffensive. Will there be large-scale riots in mixed cities within Israel (excluding West Bank) as a result?

Notes:

  1. "Large scale" = comparable to the 2021 riots in Lod, Ramla, etc, as judged by me based on Israeli news publications.

  2. Citizens - if there are riots in an Arab village and Israeli police confronts the rioters, is not sufficient for resolving YES. I am interested in civil-war-like events. Non-police Jews going to an Arab village to cause chaos does count, will depend on severity.

  3. As a result - I will be very liberal in my interpretation. If riots happen during Israeli operation in Gaza (including aerial bombings), will resolve YES. If riots happen very shortly after a ceasefire but I still think it's due to the war, will resolve YES (if happens within a ~week of a ceasefire, I will probably attribute it to the war).

  4. The market will remain open as long as the war continues. Will resolve NO after the war ends and a sufficient time has passed for me to be sure that if riots will happen, won't be related to the war.

I will not bet on this market. Since resolution is somewhat subjective, I am willing to be persuaded by discussion in the comments. If something is unclear, ask away.

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Shoutout to the Israeli Arab population

Resolution date pushed by 6 months.

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