What will happen with Trump sending troops into Portland, Oregon

Ṁ998

Dec 31

84%

Federal troops deployed into Portland, Oregon (doesnt count troops that may already be stationed there continuing normal operations)

58%

At least one protest of 10,000+ people occurs in response in Oregon

55%

A federal court issues an injunction blocking or halting the deployment

50%

The deployment lasts at least 14 consecutive days

47%

The U.S. Supreme Court issues an order or opinion related to the deployment

35%

At least one person is killed in an incident involving on-duty federal troops in Oregon

28%

Keith Wilson (Portland mayor) arrested and/or held in detention

I won't bet on this market.

Feel free to add answers, I reserve full right to N/A troll options or options that seem too subjective to resolve etc.

Will push back resolution date as needed.

Update 2025-09-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Clarifies the answer "Federal troops deployed into Portland, Oregon (doesn't count troops already stationed continuing normal operations)":
- Non-Oregon units moved into Portland count as YES.
- Federalized Oregon National Guard counts as YES only if doing tasks they normally wouldn't (e.g., immigration checkpoints).
- Troops used solely to secure federal facilities likely do not count.
- Deployments due to unrelated natural disasters may be resolved N/A.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Obviously, if anything thinks something should resolve please comment, I generally follow the news but not always in detail.

Certainly looks like to me like were going to see non Oregon troops imminentpy deployed, but we'll see what happens.

@Yakushi12345 are federal troops the same as National Guard?

sold Ṁ10 NO

@Yakushi12345 does federalized, Oregon national guard count for this purpose as not already stationed there or not?

My intention was

Non Oregonmoved in counts YES
Federalized guard doing things they normally wouldn't be (ex immigration checkpoints) resolve yes.
Probably wouldn't count it if they were solely used to secure federal facilities
Obviously could get weird if there were like an unrelated natural disaster where guard ended up deployed, would probably NA that.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Related questions