Definition of “Send”

To count as YES, either of the following must occur:

1. Federal Deployment

   • Trump, as Commander-in-Chief, orders federalized National Guard troops (Title 10, Insurrection Act, or similar authority) into San Francisco.

   • This includes instances where troops physically enter and operate in San Francisco at Trump’s direction, regardless of state or city consent.

2. State Deployment Ordered by Trump

   • The California National Guard is deployed into San Francisco at Trump’s explicit direction or order, even if technically under state control (Title 32 or state active duty).

   • Must be credibly reported that the deployment was initiated due to a Trump directive or request, not solely at the discretion of California’s governor.

Exclusions (Not YES)

• Mere threat or announcement by Trump without actual troop movement.

• Purely local/state action (e.g., Governor Newsom deploys Guard independently without Trump’s directive).

• Other federal forces (e.g., DHS, FBI, Border Patrol, federal marshals, contractors). Only National Guard counts.

• Troops stationed elsewhere in California unless they physically enter San Francisco city limits.

Resolution Criteria

• Must be confirmed by two credible media outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, SF Chronicle, NYT, WSJ, Bloomberg, etc.).

• Market resolves YES if such deployment is credibly reported on or before 11:59 PM PT, December 31, 2025.

• Otherwise resolves NO.