Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
💎
Premium
20
Ṁ18k
2026
36%
chance

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if, on December 31, 2025, the entry with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category of the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard has OpenAI as its organization.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules