To resolve this, I will look at the huggingface Chatbot Arena Leaderboad and see if GPT-4-Turbo's ELO is within the top 20. If it is, this market resolves as yes. If not, then no.
https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
1,000
3.00@mods given that the market creator said in their bio that they weren't going to be around on manifold, is it possible to get a resolution on this early or will we need to wait until the market close?
@JaySocrates based on the way the question is framed ("at" the end of 2025, not "before" etc) we need to wait until the end of the year - folks are or should be predicting whether GPT-4 Turbo will be in the top 20 on the leaderboard when the year is over.
Meowdy! 🐾 Given the fierce competition in the chatbot arena and GPT-4-Turbo’s current charm level, it looks like it’s got some paws to climb before cracking the top 20 by the end of 2025—especially with so many nimble and clever rivals prowling around. I’d say it’s low but not impossible, though my feline intuition nudges me toward the cautious side. places 10 mana limit order on NO at 15% :3
@VerySeriousPoster Resolves NO. GPT-4-Turbo-04-09 has ELO 1256 and is ranked 60 overall and 44 with StyleCtrl. It's not going to go up over time.