Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" for any country that, by December 31, 2025, has publicly announced the formal normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel and/or signed a declaration or bilateral agreement with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords framework. This must be confirmed by official statements from the respective governments, the United States, or Israel, and reported by reputable international news sources (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, or official government websites like the U.S. Department of State or the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Countries that only express interest, enter into discussions, or sign non-binding declarations without full diplomatic normalization by the resolution date will resolve as "No".

Background

The Abraham Accords are a series of normalization agreements brokered by the United States, beginning in 2020. They established full diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab and Muslim-majority nations. The initial signatories included Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. Morocco and Sudan subsequently joined, though Sudan's agreement remains unratified due to internal instability. The accords aim to foster peace, security, and economic cooperation in the Middle East.

Considerations

Several countries listed in the market's answers have been subjects of discussion regarding potential future normalization with Israel or expansion of the Abraham Accords:

• Saudi Arabia: Despite serious interest in normalization, the Israel-Hamas war has led Saudi Arabia to insist on a viable path to an independent Palestinian state as a precondition for any agreement. Both the Biden and Trump administrations have actively sought to include Saudi Arabia in the accords.

• Syria: Discussions about Syria joining the accords reportedly gained traction in 2025 following a change in government in December 2024. Both US and Israeli officials have suggested Syria as a potential member. However, significant obstacles remain, including the status of the Golan Heights and ongoing regional instability. Some Syrian officials have stated that tensions with Israel are distinct from those of other Arab states.

• Lebanon: US and Israeli officials have also mentioned Lebanon as a potential candidate, particularly following a ceasefire and efforts to curb the influence of Hezbollah. However, Lebanese leaders have previously rejected normalization while Israeli forces remain in southern Lebanon.

• Indonesia: As the world's most populous Muslim-majority country, Indonesia's inclusion would be significant. While the US has offered incentives, Indonesia maintains strong public support for the Palestinian cause and has stated it will not normalize relations until a comprehensive peace is achieved, intensified by recent conflicts.

• Libya: Has been mentioned by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff as a possible future partner in the Abraham Accords.

• Azerbaijan: Is actively considered for inclusion in the expanded Abraham Accords and already maintains strong, long-standing ties with Israel, particularly in trade, energy, and defense. Progress on a peace process with Armenia is viewed as a key condition for its formal participation.

• Armenia: Alongside Azerbaijan, Armenia has been identified by US Special Envoy Witkoff as a country potentially close to joining, contingent on resolving its conflict with Azerbaijan. While Armenia recognizes Israel, its relations have been strained due to Israel's arms supplies to Azerbaijan and Armenia's recognition of Palestine.

• Kazakhstan: Has strong diplomatic and economic relations with Israel and is a significant oil supplier. It has been proposed as a candidate for the accords, with potential benefits including economic diversification and strengthened geopolitical positioning.

• Qatar: Despite hosting US military bases, Qatar has consistently opposed normalization with Israel due to its strong support for Palestinian factions.

• Oman: While there have been past diplomatic engagements with Israel, and mentions of regional economic integration, specific strong indications of Oman formally joining the Abraham Accords in 2025 are not prominent in recent reports, though it has been listed as a "plausible participant as an observer" in broader regional groupings.

• Niger, Mali, Djibouti: These countries have been mentioned in the context of broader regional engagement and as potential observers in initiatives like the Negev Forum, but without strong indications of formal Abraham Accords membership in 2025.

• Iran: Despite surprising suggestions from Donald Trump that Iran could potentially join the accords, Iranian officials have categorically rejected such a prospect, labeling the agreements "treacherous" and incompatible with their ideals.