The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next person to become the paramount leader of the People's Republic of China, after Xi Jinping ceases to be the paramount leader of the People's Republic of China.
If no one holds the title of paramount leader of the People's Republic of China for at least 365 days after Xi Jinping ceases to be the paramount leader of the People's Republic of China, this market shall resolve to "No one". If Xi Jinping ceases to be the paramount leader of the People's Republic of China and does not regain the title of paramount leader of the People's Republic of China for at least 24 hours, this market shall resolve to "Xi Jinping" if he is the next person to become the paramount leader of the People's Republic of China within 365 days of the date Xi Jinping ceased to be the paramount leader of the People's Republic of China.
All prior references to "People's Republic of China" in this description refer to the current state officially known as the People's Republic of China, as well as to any future name the state may have, and to the successor state of the People's Republic of China if the current People's Republic of China ceases to exist.
This market currently closes at 8:00 UTC on 1 January 2028. This may change to a later date if needed.
I will not bet on this market.
1,000
3.00I'd like to make a couple of points (I will almost certainly bet after they are answered)
This market doesn't give a definition for "paramount leader". That by itself doesn't concern me because if I had made this market I wouldn't have given a tight one either.
However, the inclusion of Xi Jinping as a possible answer does concern. How will this market establish that Xi has 'ceased' to be paramount leader such that he can become so again? This I think does need some discussion.
@JoshuaWilkes The inclusion of Xi Jinping as an option was meant to cover some weird edge case where Xi temporarily loses power to another group with no successor as paramount leader.
If it starts seeming likely that this sort of scenario could happen in the near future, I'll defer to a source like Wikipedia's list of paramount leaders of China, which currently lists no vacancies since 1949. If reliable sources list a vacancy that's both preceded and succeeded by Xi Jinping, I'll resolve to him in that case.
In other words, I'll resolve to "Xi Jinping" iff (barring the time constraints mentioned in the description):
Reliable sources (i.e. not the Epoch Times or similar media) report that Xi Jinping is, at some point since market creation, no longer the paramount leader of the PRC or of a future successor state;
Reliable sources report that after said vacancy, Xi Jinping is once again the paramount leader.
I estimate a <1% chance of any of this happening, however.