After the election of the 22nd Politburo Standing Committee of the CCP in 2032, will the consensus among Western China analysts be that Xi has chosen a successor?
Traditionally a successor would be chosen at the beginning of a General Secretary's second and final term, who would serve on the PSC. Xi did not make such an 'appointment' in 2017 or 2022.
I will assess the consensus after the National Congress of the Party in 2032, unless the below criteria is met:
If the market for 2027 resolves YES, this will resolve NO
https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-xi-jinping-choose-a-successor?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz
I will not bet in this market.
1,000
3.00@Ernie Thank you! Been meaning to get this series out for a while, I just knew it would be a fiddley few hours because it requires constant rechecking off the relationships between all the different committees and congresses.
I'll try to remember that tag for the future~
@JoshuaWilkes yeah. definitely. If I could make another very difficult request - would be awesome to have "next dalai lama" markets. will he reincarnate / announce he won't, will china offer up a fake, etc. etc. It's so complicated - but something very big will happen in this area in the next 5 years, and it would be great to get ahead of it.