"At least 20% of randos know what they are."

I'm not convinced that even 1% of randos know what prediction markets are now, unless you re-define the term, "Prediction Market," to mean, "Market which uses some kind of trading."

I have scanned through the majority of the entire Journal of Prediction Markets going back to 2007, they talk a lot about sports betting, stock exchanges, they use a lot of data sources that are not explicitly prediction markets because there are just not that many prediction markets in the universe. They are complex to build and maintain, they are pretty low reward, high effort historically. You're basically building a low volume exchange.

In the case of Polymarket, see my comments over here: https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-prediction-markets-become-main#ofw06tiylgg

You have Shayne Copeland saying, "mainstream," in a couple of comments below, then getting raided by the FBI a couple months later. This doesn't bode super well for regulation or trust in prediction markets.

That being said, I actually have written my own prediction market platform, SocialPredict, but I'm trying to calibrate myself toward a reasonable expectation of reality. It's going to help a huge amount if 20% of randos know specifically what a prediction market is, but I really don't see that happening.

https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict

@TristanRoberts when does this resolve? At the beginning of 2025, at the end, or at the current market close date?

Election markets (offshore) seem to be hitting the mainstream

@Yiddishe_Kupp1980 agreed! Trump called Polymarket polly polls and someone in the crowd corrected him

betting yes to motivate @toms and i to scale up opticforecasting.com 🤣

@saulmunn any news? Your webpage looks cool! Fall is certainly approaching though :P

the value of manifold profits in the universe where this market resolves true is much greater than the value of manifold profits in the universe where it resolves false. There are meta-strategic reasons for this probability of this market to overstate the likelihood of this outcome.

@Adam I don't think this is true. In worlds where manifold fails, mana goes to 0, but otherwise mana should always be worth just below a cent

@toms I think in the world where 80 million Americans know about prediction markets, being a high profile early adopter with a track record of success will be a valuable signal. It's not the mana, it's the profit on your profile

For second criteria, are you polling the world wide general populace?