Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?

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Resolves to yes if real money prediction markets become legal without having to jump through regulatory hurdles such as PredictIt and Kalshi did. In the event of an ambiguous result (such as the loosening of some regulations but not others), I'll resolve to PROB 50%.

Mar 10, 11:24am: Clarification: In order to resolve to 50%, there need to have been *significant* changes in favor of prediction markets that noticeably change the landscape of attempted platforms.

Close date updated to 2026-01-01 12:00 am

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opened a Ṁ25,000 YES at 55% order

https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9046-25
“Unfortunately, the undue delay and anti-innovation policies of the past several years have severely restricted the CFTC’s ability to pivot to common-sense regulation of prediction markets,” said Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham. “Despite my repeated dissents and other objections since 2022, the current Commission interpretations regarding event contracts are a sinkhole of legal uncertainty and an inappropriate constraint on the new Administration. Prediction markets are an important new frontier in harnessing the power of markets to assess sentiment to determine probabilities that can bring truth to the Information Age. The CFTC must break with its past hostility to innovation and take a forward-looking approach to the possibilities of the future.

@NoaNabeshima Deep Research summary: https://chatgpt.com/share/67a44ec8-cca4-8008-9b84-c7a8c8ff5ffe

I'm going to say yes even though I think they really shouldn't and it's gambling. There's a lot of political power behind financial deregulation which will not end well.

predictedYES

What if the changes are approved by end of 2025 but don’t go into effect until 2026 (or later)? Or if it’s late in 2025 so that no organization has been operationalized yet?

@Tyler31 If a real-money prediction market were to materialize out of nowhere, it must be legal to run.

I would bet, but sadly MM makes betting long-term really painful.

Predictit's no-action letter from the CFTC got revoked: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22

@Sinclair I feel like this is a sign for a potential future regulatory framework that will allow more Kalshi-like platforms. 2025 is probably too soon, and I don't know that it'll actually be less hurdles, I'm just expecting something more formalized.

predictedYES

@Sinclair The problem with this entire question is that "hurdles" is too broad of a definition. Airplane travel is definitely "legalized" within the US, but airlines and airline passengers still have to "jump through regulatory hurdles." Furthermore, the phrasing "jump through hurdles" is a mixed metaphor (the correct form is "jump through hoops"), but that's neither here nor there.

@PeterBerggren How would you suggest I define the resolution terms more rigorously?

@IsaacKing I'd suggest defining it in terms of the establishment of a formal regulatory framework for seeking approval for prediction markets.

"Hurdles" is too ambiguous of a term, but I do think there is a high likelihood of a formal regulatory framework for prediction markets, in the same sense that there is a formal framework for commodity futures markets, by this date, as there has been much more attention on such markets of late.

>50% chance of a 50% resolution here, should trade at least 25%

I don't see any reason the regulations would be loosened.

(sold as there is no chance that I would have income, no matter the resolution of market)

They can be easily reduced to obvious gambling (as demonstrated by spammy markets on Manifold), and are treated to be gambling by many. I fully expect that they will continue being treated as gambling - and it mostly makes sense.

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