The ceasefire agreement must:
1) Be confirmed by reputable media outlets, and
2) Last at least one week with no significant recorded violations of the ceasefire (I'm defining "significant violation" as a military action by either side that results in at least one death during the agreed upon duration of the ceasefire)
Since the ceasefire would need to last at least 7 days in 2024, the question will still resolve as NO if a ceasefire agreement is reached at the end of December, e.g. on December 28th.
If somehow a permanent peace deal is reached without a temporary ceasefire, then this question will also resolve YES.
Lebanon Cease-Fire Appears to Hold Despite Israeli Strike (NYT)
Nov. 28, 2024Updated 3:42 p.m. ET
The uneasy truce between Israel and the militant group Hezbollah largely held through its second day in Lebanon on Thursday, although Israel conducted an airstrike that it said targeted militants violating terms of the cease-fire deal.
The Israeli strike was the first of its kind since the U.S.-backed cease-fire went into effect before dawn on Wednesday. But despite an exchange of blame between two parties of the deal — Israel and Lebanon — neither of the war’s combatants, Israel or Hezbollah, seemed keen to immediately return to full-scale fighting.
Israel and Hezbollah trade accusations of ceasefire violations (REUTERS)
Two sides trade accusations the day after deal goes into effect
Israel tank fire hits six areas in Lebanon, security sources say
Biden to focus on Gaza; Israel keeps up strikes on the enclave
Today, he says IDF troops worked to enforce the agreement. The soldiers "identified suspects who approached no-go zones, detained them, and fired warning shots. We also killed terrorists today," Hagari says
"We are stationed and operating in this area. Armed operatives in the area marked on the map is a violation [of the ceasefire], and any armed operative will be eliminated or detained," he says.
At least 6 Hezbollah fighters were killed by the IDF. What’s your opinion?
It's 4 a.m. in Lebanon. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal is expected to take effect now
@DistinctlySkeptical So we are technicly now looking at leg 2 of the question, in terms of if the ceasefire will be violated, correct?
Israel agrees to a ceasefire with Hezbollah that could stop the war in Lebanon
On 26 November, Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu announced the transfer of a sixty-day ceasefire deal to the Security Cabinet of Israel. Support for the deal in the Israeli government was "unanimous".[463] The deal involved Hezbollah operatives withdrawing to the north of the Litani River, and Israel withdrawing from Lebanon at the end of the sixty days. The deal also stated that Israel would retain "complete military freedom of action" to attack Lebanon in the event of a violation of the agreement by Hezbollah or another entity in Lebanon.[464][465][466] Prime Minister of Lebanon Najib Mikati issued strong support for the agreement and urged the international community to help implement the agreement immediately in order to "halt Israeli aggression".[467]