Will there be a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah by the end of 2024?
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Plus
111
Ṁ44k
Jan 1
80%
chance

The ceasefire agreement must:

1) Be confirmed by reputable media outlets, and

2) Last at least one week with no significant recorded violations of the ceasefire (I'm defining "significant violation" as a military action by either side that results in at least one death during the agreed upon duration of the ceasefire)

Since the ceasefire would need to last at least 7 days in 2024, the question will still resolve as NO if a ceasefire agreement is reached at the end of December, e.g. on December 28th.

If somehow a permanent peace deal is reached without a temporary ceasefire, then this question will also resolve YES.

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How many days out of seven do we have so far?

Hard to tell without detailed casualty reports.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Lebanon Cease-Fire Appears to Hold Despite Israeli Strike (NYT)

Nov. 28, 2024Updated 3:42 p.m. ET

The uneasy truce between Israel and the militant group Hezbollah largely held through its second day in Lebanon on Thursday, although Israel conducted an airstrike that it said targeted militants violating terms of the cease-fire deal.

The Israeli strike was the first of its kind since the U.S.-backed cease-fire went into effect before dawn on Wednesday. But despite an exchange of blame between two parties of the deal — Israel and Lebanon — neither of the war’s combatants, Israel or Hezbollah, seemed keen to immediately return to full-scale fighting.

bought Ṁ350 NO from 66% to 57%

Israel and Hezbollah trade accusations of ceasefire violations (REUTERS)

  • Two sides trade accusations the day after deal goes into effect

  • Israel tank fire hits six areas in Lebanon, security sources say

  • Biden to focus on Gaza; Israel keeps up strikes on the enclave

bought Ṁ50 NO from 63% to 60%

how would this resolve if there is at least a week of no significant recorded violations, but not immediately after the ceasefire comes into affect
for example, a ceasefire comes into affect, one the two sides violate it, then there is a week of quiet with no new agreement since the violation

bought Ṁ40 NO

Today, he says IDF troops worked to enforce the agreement. The soldiers "identified suspects who approached no-go zones, detained them, and fired warning shots. We also killed terrorists today," Hagari says

"We are stationed and operating in this area. Armed operatives in the area marked on the map is a violation [of the ceasefire], and any armed operative will be eliminated or detained," he says.

https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1861847442272211188?s=46

At least 6 Hezbollah fighters were killed by the IDF. What’s your opinion?

@AviSchwartz it's a channel 14 correspondent, not sure this is a reputable source.

@BaryLevy See the JP reporter

above.

It's 4 a.m. in Lebanon. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal is expected to take effect now

From CNN's Aditi Sangal

@DistinctlySkeptical So we are technicly now looking at leg 2 of the question, in terms of if the ceasefire will be violated, correct?

bought Ṁ100 NO

Israel agrees to a ceasefire with Hezbollah that could stop the war in Lebanon

On 26 November, Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu announced the transfer of a sixty-day ceasefire deal to the Security Cabinet of Israel. Support for the deal in the Israeli government was "unanimous".[463] The deal involved Hezbollah operatives withdrawing to the north of the Litani River, and Israel withdrawing from Lebanon at the end of the sixty days. The deal also stated that Israel would retain "complete military freedom of action" to attack Lebanon in the event of a violation of the agreement by Hezbollah or another entity in Lebanon.[464][465][466] Prime Minister of Lebanon Najib Mikati issued strong support for the agreement and urged the international community to help implement the agreement immediately in order to "halt Israeli aggression".[467]

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