๐Ÿ“–Will @ScottAlexander write _another_ banger (over 500 likes) in 2023?
โž•
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111
แน€270k
resolved Dec 8
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if a post made on Astral Codex Ten between 2023-09-08 and 2023-12-31 (inclusive) receives more than 500 likes by the end of 2023. UTC times will be used. The post will need to have this many likes long enough for me to confirm. Only posts by Scott count. For example, the book review contest submissions do not count (unless one of them is later revealed to have been written by Scott).

See also:
/Tossup/will-scottalexander-write-a-classic

/Tossup/will-scottalexander-write-an-alltim

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I'm checking about once an hour. I currently see 500. I estimate it's very likely that the post gets above 501 and that I see it soon.

@Tossup Likes >=501, to be clear.

predictedYES

Right but I posted a screenshot two hours ago? And there was another within the last hour?

๐Ÿ˜•

@shankypanky I agree that the screenshots are good evidence, but I don't want to go against the description I set when I created the market unless those resolution criteria miss the spirit of the market entirely. In my judgement, I will see 501 likes soon enough and the resolution criteria as written will be satisfied.

predictedYES

I 100% respect following through with the market description

what a rollercoaster ๐Ÿ˜…

let's see if it drops further down now that the market is resolved lol

predictedYES

how often are you checking?

the likes seem to be alternating but there are multiple comments and screenshots proving it met market criteria. I wish I'd read that part (that you specifically need to see it whenever you're online and get to it) more carefully as this feels like a loophole and I wouldn't have participated, it's too volatile.

As said earlier, resolves to YES.

maybe we're holding it until someone unlikes it again? ๐Ÿ˜…

the edge of my seat is the most uncomfortable part of it but here I am...

predictedYES

@shankypanky Well the market rules clearly outline that if a post gets more than 500 likes at any time it's a YES resolution, and frankly I'd like to get my Mana back.

predictedYES

@Kraalnaxx "The post will need to have this many likes long enough for me to confirm."

It's back at 500 now

predictedYES

Same I was being sarcastic :)

Especially since it apparently tipped over 10h ago per an earlier comment (without screenshot unfortunately) and then dropped under again.

It's frustrating that the post needs to remain at 501+ until the creator sees it despite screenshots as who knows how often they're keeping tabs?

predictedYES

@Lorenzo ๐Ÿ˜ 

Resolves yes.

One more...

Yeah, this was at 499 when I checked just now.

resolves yes

Annnd 501 now. Ah well, it was funny.

predictedNO

There's 500

Quick buy some NO and unlike it, we can keep it below 501 for the rest of the year.

predictedYES

@DanMan314 Haha someone appears to have taken your advice, it just went from 499 to 498.

@DanMan314 Joining in because Scott would find this hilarious. 497 now.

predictedNO

@LeatherComputer Scott has the largest NO position on this market, we're helping him profit!

@DanMan314 Yeah, and if this works, it'll bring more publicity to the kidney post! #new_ea_cause_area

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