Balkan related market

@GazDownright is there a reason to think that market has a probability linked to this one, hence could act as an arbitrage? If not I suspect just using the Balkans tag may be sufficient in the future

@TheAllMemeingEye I think we find a clear correlation between level of development and probability of civil war breaking out, but I'll keep your feedback in mind.

@ArmandodiMatteo Yeah there seems to be a discrepancy lol, the only possible solution is that the Balkans aren't in Europe, apparently

@ArmandodiMatteo (I don't have the liquidity to arbitrage this away and I'm too tired to liquidate any other position atm)

@TheAllMemeingEye P(civil war in the Balkans|civil war in Europe) = 136%, sorry I don't make the rules

(see also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conjunction_fallacy)

@ArmandodiMatteo Yeah I would bet my own market down even further but I kinda need the bonuses from new traders doing it, and it's already at a percentage where the profit margins from doing so would be too small given how much I'm comfortable betting at a time