Will there be a civil war in Europe by the end of 2024 | Manifold

Will there be a civil war in Europe by the end of 2024

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28

Ṁ2274

Dec 31

11%

chance

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1W

1M

ALL

This prediction will be paid out if there is a major consensus from multiple countries that a civil war is occuring

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@ArmandodiMatteo (I don't have the liquidity to arbitrage this away and I'm too tired to liquidate any other position atm)

Must this be one nation fighting itself (US Civil War, Vietnam war…etc.) to qualify?

"Europe" by the geographical definition (to the watershed of the Urals, the Ural river, the Caspian Sea, the watershed of the Greater Caucasus, and the Black Sea)?

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