Resolves based on who has a lower Brier score (each prediction weighted equally). Locking in the percentages from this market on 2/9/2025 (giving Manifold a 2 week advantage from when the article was published) in order to give it enough time for volume. After that I will track results in a publicly available spreadsheet.
Because of the advantage I will be ignoring the follow predictions:
#41 Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days.
#43 Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations.
#44 At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms.
#66 The war in Ukraine ends in Trump’s first 90 days
Any prediction that has less than 2 traders at the time (TBD)
Current Tracking:
1,000
3.00Tracking Created:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13cRHYqQ9FuVf4HK9_tRnD4EFIffo1bbbWIm8U2uVZyo/edit?usp=sharing
Let me know if there are any projections other than the ones I noted that should be argued to be ignored due to the time difference!
I usually trust the wisdom of crowds, but I'm leaning towards Nate because these types of multiple-choice markets tend to have huge inefficiencies and not attract as many traders, especially with so many answers.