Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight.
This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
1,000
3.00@chrisjbillington Well purport implies perhaps that at the very least the username or name is Nate Silver. I’m torn on whether or not I’d want to incentivize outing a private alt account. What do you think?
Edit: thought we were discussing my market. Carson can do whatever he wants with this one of course.
@oh OTOH the fact that they need to aggressively pursue him suggests he's not very interested.
@chrisjbillington He still has a few years, so the fact that he attended is still a YES signal (you're already treating it this way afaict, but worth noting).
Does anyone who was there know more about this?
@JamesGrugett texted me that he’s coming to Manifest, and the website displays that as well. Hard to imagine he wouldn’t create a single market when there. https://www.manifestconference.net/speakers
