According to a reliable news source. It is nearly impossible to total all the damage worldwide if each country had minimal damage. So we will resolve Yes only if it is >$1M in one area.
Update 2025-07-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated this market will resolve to Yes if a tsunami causes $1 Million in damages.
Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market's scope is worldwide. The damage calculation will focus on direct economic impact, NOT lost crops or wages. The calculation will not include future damages or non-standard metrics like "CO2 emissions".
1,000
3.00@SteveBright Would you consider the following as sufficient evidence of damage? https://www.rbc.ru/society/03/08/2025/688e25109a794710b5d8c94d
In particular, the article says that the tsunami destroyed the embankment on the Kuril Islands, for the construction of which 233 million rubles had been allocated. At current exchange rates, that would put estimated damages from the embankment alone south of $3M.
@aleven The embankment itself is questionable hard to quantify. But certainly there was other damage to buildings nearby that could add up. Nobody caught this the day I created the market?
@SteveBright I personally never bothered to check for damage estimates since the threshold seemed very low, however total damage estimates appear to be hard to get (maybe they'll be released by EOY). I actually found the embankment figure to be good evidence – if the infrastructure itself cost almost $3M to build and it is now completely destroyed, surely the damage should approximate cost to build?
@aleven There were not meant to withstand a Tsunami. They were meant to protect against storms. They were built with a limited budget and old design standards. Their failure was expected given their location.
@SteveBright you seem to imply that damages suffered by any infrastructure not explicitly built to withstand a tsunami would not count for the purpose of this market. Is that what you are actually implying? Because this is not reflected in the market description, and in a comment below you wrote "resolve Yes if there is any damage at all reported".
California harbor suffers close to $1M in damage from tsunami waves https://www.sfgate.com/northcoast/article/crescent-city-harbor-tsunami-damage-20796767.php
@CraigDemel Yes, maybe someday they will add up the little numbers to reach a sum of about $1m. I was looking for a clear outcome way OVER that amount. When I created this, I guessed a Tsunami would be all or nothing in damages. I never imagined it could come up to Exactly $1m after months of accounting.
@Dulaman Yes. It must be calculated in a similar way that we would here. Not some future damages. Not measured in "CO2 emissions". Lost crops or wages...