[Metaculus] Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?
[Metaculus] Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?
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Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question resolves will resolve as Yes there is a single tsunami which can be attributed to 50,000 fatalities. The tsunami must occur between October 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, but the fatalities need not occur strictly within this time period.
To resolve the question, Metaculus will consider all credible sources, including USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and other official statistics and media reports
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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