Will a Sora-generated video receive over 1 billion total views across social media before July 2026?
13
Ṁ2451
2026
52%
chance

can also be a compilation of multiple ai-generated vidoes like the prompt theory one. if the same video goes viral on multiple platforms then views will be aggregated. minor human edits are allowed.

  • Update 2025-10-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Burden of proof: YES traders must provide evidence that the 1B total views threshold was met across platforms.

    • Timing: The 1B milestone must be reached before market close; views accrued after the market ends will not count.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

How will you count this?

Won't it be really complicated to prove a negative?

Maybe add in the description that there has to be links to the same video in this question's comments which hit the threshold before this question's end date. Like make that the deciding factor?

@Dulaman I imagine burden of proof would be on the YES traders, and if they couldn't prove it within a week or two of the deadline passing then it would resolve NO

@Dulaman i feel this is quite obvious and a common practice for questions of this sort, but just for the sake of clarity, yes the burden of proof is on Yes traders and the videos have to reach the 1 billion milestone before the end of the market

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules