Will Anthropic automate AI research in 2024? | Manifold

Will Anthropic automate AI research in 2024?

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Will this happen?

If Anthropic succesfully automates AI research in 2024 this market resolves YES.
Otherwise this market resolves NO at close (start of 2025).

I will ultimately be using my own judgement and deciding based on the spirit of this market. I plan to be heavily watching Anthropic, investigating what AI researchers believe, and getting input and feedback from others.

A minor amount of irrelevant tasks automated won't count, we are talking about a meaningful amount of AI research automation.

I will NOT bet in this market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Do you consider it research, if it is limited to empirical optimisation of architecture? Or does it have to contribute to the theoretical foundation, too?

predictedYES

Most AI research is empirical optimisation of architectures. It should count imo

@Riemann AI automating architecture research counts.

This could be doable with an AutoGPT-style agent, although AI research does have a few different moving parts so I don't know if it'll be achievable as soon as the end of next year (especially since more blind/brute-force AutoML-type stuff hasn't already "automated AI research" in the same sense that Anthropic is seeking to do.)

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Related questions

Will Anthropic, Google, xAI or Meta release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?

Will Anthropic have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Will Anthropic release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?

Will Anthropic and OpenAI collaborate substantially on a research paper before 2025?

Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-3 before the end of 2025?

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

Will Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?

Will I (co)write an AI safety research paper by the end of 2024?

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?

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