Will Anthropic, Google, xAI or Meta release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?

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As most of you already know openai released a new model called o1 capable of reasoning. In OpenAI's words the model can:

spend more time thinking before they respond. They can reason through complex tasks and solve harder problems than previous models in science, coding, and math.

I wonder if any of the big labs is already working on something that gets released this year. Even if it’s invite-only, we need to see evidence that the model exists and that someone outside the big lab’s network of family and friends has access to it. The model should be able to reason for different timeframes based on the complexity of a problem before coming up with a response.

/Soli/will-a-finetuned-opensource-model-u

/Soli/will-anthropic-release-a-model-that

/Soli/which-of-these-companies-will-relea

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bought Ṁ200 YES

https://arxiv.org/html/2410.10630v1

bought Ṁ100 YES from 56% to 60%

opened a Ṁ2,000 YES at 55% order

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 70% order

@Bayesian @gnitz @Phill

Do you want to make a version of this but it's an independent multi-choice like "Which of these labs will release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?"

@jim i already have this:

/Soli/will-anthropic-release-a-model-that

annd this

/Soli/will-a-finetuned-opensource-model-u

but maybe a consolidated market also makes sense so here it is: https://manifold.markets/Soli/which-of-these-companies-will-relea

@traders /Soli/which-of-these-companies-will-relea

@Soli Thanks. It's a question I'm interested in. Researching it will hopefully give me a clearer picture of what's going on in these labs.

@jim i boosted with 500 mana, let’s hope this attracts some trading volume

@jim you mean researching professionally or for fun?

bought Ṁ500 YES

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/google-is-working-on-reasoning-ai-chasing-openai-s-efforts

Google's apparently been working on this for months now

@SG where are my creator bonuses :( … 72 traders in ~24 hours and 0 Mana

@SirSalty

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 84% order

Is the criteria for release something like them both saying it's being rolled out (even if slowly), and some rando on Twitter posting about using it?

Would appreciate understanding better how much it takes :)

@HenriThunberg i will take my time collecting and examining the evidence but if one of the companies makes an official announcement that they started rolling out the model and some users on twitter or anywhere provide some screenshots/videos that I deem credible that would suffice yes.. i will allow participants of this market some time to dismiss the evidence or convince me that it is not credible.

@HenriThunberg i personally doubt this will be a point of contention though

bought Ṁ50 YES

Even if it’s invite-only, we need to see evidence that the model exists and that someone outside Anthropic’s network of family and friends has access to it

Shouldn't this be OpenAI's network of family and friends?

@zsig it should be the big lab’s network of family and friends haha - i duplicated another question of mine and forgot to edit this part

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