I think the market I created is similar to this: https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/will-icj-find-israel-in-breach-of-t?play=true

However it's possible that the court will find Israel guilty of some war crime but not breaching the genocide convention, for instance if they find Israel guilty of not following provisional order 7 here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa's_genocide_case_against_Israel#Requested_provisional_measures_of_protection then Shump would perhaps resolve YES but I would resolve no.

Is such a large gap between this and the genocide market justified?

Why not? War crimes and a genocide are miles apart. I think the gap should be bigger.

Personally, I think there's 95% that Israel committed war crimes and 3% that there is or will be a genocide.

@Shai I think the most likely outcome is that the court rules Israel is not committing genocide, but that it is committing war crimes, and in particular is in breach of the Genocide Convention because it is not doing enough to prevent incitement to genocide and letting Kahanist ministers (who to be sure are not running the Gaza policy) incite genocide.

You will have people then falsely accusing Israel of committing genocide.

@nathanwei Sounds likely.

@Shai Come bet https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/will-icj-find-israel-in-breach-of-t

Damn this really was a steal at 30%

On a related topic (ICC and not ICJ): https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68938022.amp

Alarm in Israel at reports of possible ICC legal action over Gaza - BBC News

Benjamin Netanyahu has called reports of possible International Criminal Court action "an outrage".