Resolution criteria

• This market resolves when the ICJ issues its final merits Judgment in Case 192, “Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v. Israel).” Source for resolution: the ICJ case page (Judgment document once posted). https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192 (icj-cij.org)

• Exactly one option resolves Yes, using this precedence:

  1. Genocide — If the Court finds Israel internationally responsible for committing genocide under Article II (by its organs/agents or conduct attributable to the state), this option resolves Yes; all others No. Resolution is based solely on the final Judgment’s dispositive paragraphs. https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192 (icj-cij.org)

  2. No genocide, but non-incitement breaches of the Convention — If the Court finds any breach other than Article III(c) (e.g., failure to prevent or punish genocide under Article I, complicity Art. III(e), conspiracy III(b), attempt III(d)), this option resolves Yes, even if the Court also finds an incitement breach. https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192 (icj-cij.org)

  3. Incitement-only breach of the Genocide Convention — If the Court finds a breach solely of Article III(c) (direct and public incitement to commit genocide) and no other breach (and no genocide), this option resolves Yes. https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192 (icj-cij.org)

  4. No breach of the Genocide Convention — If the Court dismisses all claims on the merits and finds no violation by Israel, this option resolves Yes. https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192 (icj-cij.org)

• Edge cases:

  • Provisional-measures orders do not determine merits and will not be used to resolve this market. Only the final merits Judgment controls. (icj-cij.org)

  • If the Court terminates the case without a merits Judgment (e.g., lack of jurisdiction/admissibility, discontinuance, settlement), the market resolves N/A. https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192 (icj-cij.org)

Background

• South Africa filed the case on 29 Dec 2023 alleging Israel’s breaches of the Genocide Convention in Gaza (General List No. 192). As of Aug 22, 2025, there is no merits Judgment; on 14 Apr 2025 the Court extended Israel’s Counter‑Memorial deadline. (icj-cij.org)

• The Court indicated and later modified provisional measures on 26 Jan, 28 Mar, and 24 May 2024; on 24 May it ordered Israel to halt its Rafah offensive and ensure humanitarian access (binding but without prejudice to the merits). (icj-cij.org)

• Precedent: in Bosnia v. Serbia (2007), the ICJ found no genocide by the respondent state but did find a breach of the duty to prevent genocide—illustrating that “non‑genocide breaches” are possible. (icj-cij.org)

Considerations

• The ICJ can find failure to prevent genocide only if genocide occurred (by any actor), and it can find complicity or other breaches without finding the respondent committed genocide. (icj-cij.org)

• “Incitement-only breach” applies only if the sole violation is Article III(c); if any other breach is also found, the market resolves to the “non‑incitement breaches” option per the precedence above. https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192 (icj-cij.org)

• Timelines for merits judgments can be long; traders should expect resolution only after the ICJ posts its final Judgment on the case page. (icj-cij.org)

Thanks to AI for making the description. I will not bet on this market.