@SemioticRivalry steel lost you can resolve

Currently this is 3-2 dems with Steel almost certain to lose making it 4-2 and irrelevant what happens in CA-13

Current margins:
CA-13: R+3
CA-22: R+10
CA-27: R+2
CA-41: R+3
CA-45: R+4
CA-47: R+0.42
CA-49: D+1.9

The remaining vote left to be counted is likely Dem-leaning overall, and it seems like the tipping point for this question will probably be CA-13. Comparing 2022 and 2024 results by county:

2022
Merced: Gray +5
Stanislaus: Gray +4
Madera: Duarte +17
Fresno: Duarte +10
San Joaquin: Gray +6

2024 (so far)
Merced: Duarte +0.56 (44% in)
Stanislaus: Gray +4 (54% in)
Madera: Duarte +15 (62% in)
Fresno: Duarte +14 (60% in)
San Joaquin: Gray +6 (60% in)

Unless Merced County has shifted hard right from 2022, it seems like Gray has a lot of votes to be counted there. But Merced is 64% Latino and 14.5% of its population has a Bachelor's degree, so a hard right shift is plausible. Duarte (barely) won in 2022, and I think the demographics of this county suggest he will win again this year.

It's possible CA-41 or CA-45 is the tipping point instead, but overall I think this market is overvalued at 60%.