California Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?
California Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?
Plus
13
Ṁ19662026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
96%
Democratic Party
3%
Republican Party
0.6%
This market will resolve to the party which won the state's gubernatorial election, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may resolve early.
If a candidate switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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