Will Wikipedia endorse the lab-leak theory for origins of COVID-19 before 2030?
Plus
11
Ṁ6972030
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As of Today, wikipedia says of the lab leak
Will Wikipedia state the lab leak theory as the origin of covid before 2030? the article must support lab leak for at least a week for it to be accepted in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
40% chance
Will Wikipedia credit gain-of-function research as possible cause for COVID by 2024?
43% chance
What will be the most popular Wikipedia article in 2024?
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
35% chance
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
34% chance
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
33% chance
Will any other US intelligence agency change their assessment of Covid origins towards a lab origin by the end of 2024?
28% chance
Will the Covid Lab Leak Theory become truth by the end of 2024?
7% chance
Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
33% chance
Will a model of chatGPT state lab-leak theory is the origin of covid 19 before 2030?
73% chance