On May 1 2034 I will identify the top LLM assistant from OpenAI available for <100$ a month and run the following question five independent times and average the results. If the average estimate from the five outlets is over 60% the claim resolves true.
If openAI has no suitable model I'll find the best similar model. I'll do this from the US as a US citizen.
Here is the prompt
Please reply with JSON following the template, for each type of media: New York Times, the New Yorker, the Economist, the Guardian UK, China's People's Daily.
Make an estimate suitable for each media outlet based on its beliefs at the present time.
Template:
[{"Name": "the New York times", "estimate that covid escaped from a lab": "3%" }, "reasons":["details of reasons for this view..." ]}, ...]
1,000
3.00gpt 4o average 11%
o1: average 9.2%
Details:
gpt 4o. Not the most advanced model, just testing. Average 11%
[
{
"Name": "The New York Times",
"estimate that covid escaped from a lab": "10%",
"reasons": [
"The New York Times has reported on the lab leak theory but often emphasizes the lack of conclusive evidence supporting it.",
"The publication tends to highlight the prevailing scientific consensus favoring a natural origin for SARS-CoV-2."
]
},
{
"Name": "The New Yorker",
"estimate that covid escaped from a lab": "15%",
"reasons": [
"The New Yorker has explored the lab leak theory in depth, acknowledging it as a possibility while also discussing the complexities and uncertainties involved.",
"The magazine provides balanced coverage, presenting arguments for both lab-based and natural origins without endorsing a definitive stance."
]
},
{
"Name": "The Economist",
"estimate that covid escaped from a lab": "20%",
"reasons": [
"The Economist has analyzed the lab leak theory, considering it a plausible scenario given the lack of definitive evidence for a natural origin.",
"The publication often discusses the geopolitical implications of the theory and the challenges in obtaining conclusive information."
]
},
{
"Name": "The Guardian UK",
"estimate that covid escaped from a lab": "10%",
"reasons": [
"The Guardian has reported on the lab leak theory, noting recent assessments by intelligence agencies that suggest it as a possibility.",
"However, the publication also emphasizes the ongoing debate and the absence of conclusive evidence supporting the lab leak hypothesis."
]
},
{
"Name": "China's People's Daily",
"estimate that covid escaped from a lab": "0%",
"reasons": [
"The People's Daily, as the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, consistently rejects the lab leak theory.",
"The publication emphasizes narratives supporting a natural origin of the virus and often highlights international studies aligning with this view."
]
}
]
o1: average 9.2%
[
{
"Name": "the New York Times",
"estimate that covid escaped from a lab": "10%",
"reasons": [
"Historically relies on scientific consensus leaning toward zoonotic origin",
"Coverage often cites U.S. intelligence assessments but notes they are inconclusive"
]
},
{
"Name": "the New Yorker",
"estimate that covid escaped from a lab": "5%",
"reasons": [
"Editorial focus on expert interviews that predominantly support natural spillover",
"Emphasis on detailed investigative pieces that have found no decisive lab-leak evidence"
]
},
{
"Name": "the Economist",
"estimate that covid escaped from a lab": "20%",
"reasons": [
"Analytical approach weighs the lab-leak hypothesis as a non-negligible possibility",
"Recognizes ongoing scientific debate and incomplete data from Wuhan labs"
]
},
{
"Name": "the Guardian UK",
"estimate that covid escaped from a lab": "10%",
"reasons": [
"Generally aligns with majority scientific opinion favoring a natural origin",
"Still acknowledges open questions and continuing investigations by global bodies"
]
},
{
"Name": "China's People's Daily",
"estimate that covid escaped from a lab": "1%",
"reasons": [
"Reflects the official stance of the Chinese government, which strongly denies lab involvement",
"Promotes theory of natural origin and criticizes foreign speculation as politically motivated"
]
}
]