Conditional on this candidate winning the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, will they win the general election?
Conditional on this candidate winning the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, will they win the general election?
Plus
19
Ṁ10512028
66%
Gretchen Whitmer
60%
Andy Beshear
58%
Josh Shapiro
55%
Jared Polis
50%
Mark Cuban
50%
Wes Moore
50%
Al Gore
48%
Stephen A. Smith
45%
Andrew Cuomo
45%
Pete Buttigieg
35%
Kamala Harris
34%
Gavin Newsom
32%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
After the 2028 DNC, all markets except the nominee's resolve N/A.
If this market resolves to Democratic Party, the nominee's market resolves YES. Otherwise, the nominee's market resolves NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
answered1mo
Kamala Harris
@Robincvgr I personally think she only has a chance if she changes her strategy and doesn’t try to appeal to centrists/RW voters
DNC dearly needs leaders with a clear, positive vision; they’re sorely lacking right now
bought Ṁ30 Kamala Harris NO1mo
@KJW_01294 That's so funny, because my prescription for her would be exactly the opposite haha - more strongly repudiate the unpopular positions she took in 2019 and actually make an appeal to the center that sounds plausible to moderates (rather than making a bunch of centrist noises while not actually explaining why or if her positions have actually changed from the race to the left-fest that was the 2019 primary).
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries?
Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028?
Who will be major candidates in the 2028 Democratic primaries?
Will a Democrat win the 2028 Presidential Election?
57% chance
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Election?
55% chance
If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?
Will a Democrat win the 2028 Presidential Election?
54% chance
Will a democrat win the 2028 presidential election?
55% chance