These were the six closest swing states in 2020. I will define "most Democratic" and "most Republican" based on the difference in the proportion of votes won by the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in the 2024 election.
The most Democratic state resolves NO, second most resolves 20%, etc., up to the most Republican one resolving YES.
If, by some miraculous coincidence, two states end up exactly tied in vote margin, I'll resolve them both to the average of the two places they're tied between. e.g., if two states are tied for being the second-most Democratic, they'll both resolve to 30%.
1,000
3.00Rationality check for this market: All the answer choices should add up to 300%. Currently, they add up to 294% (± a couple percent from roundoff error), so it's approximately rational by that metric.