How many of the seven swing states will be decided by 2.5% or less?
Plus
30
Ṁ4030Nov 5
5%
0
10%
1
13%
2
26%
3
25%
4
11%
5
5%
6
5%
7
How many of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona will be decided by 2.5% or less? i.e., in how many of these states will the difference in vote percentage between Harris and Trump be at most 2.5%? Note that this market only counts these seven states. If any other states end up being decided by <2.5%, they won't count towards the total.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will any 2024 House race be decided by less than 0.1%?
33% chance
Will any U.S. Senate election in 2024 be decided by less than 1%?
99% chance
Will any U.S. Senate election in 2024 be decided by less than 0.5%?
99% chance
Swing states of the future: Which states will be within 5 points in the 2040 presidential election?
Will any state be decided by <0.1% in the 2024 presidential election?
2% chance
Will any U.S. Senate election in 2024 be decided by less than 0.1%?
17% chance
Will any 2024 House race be decided by less than 0.5%?
95% chance
Will the tipping point state be decided by less than 2% in the 2024 POTUS election?
98% chance
Will at least 5 U.S. House elections be decided by less than 0.5% in 2024?
7% chance
Will at least 20 U.S. House races be decided by less than 3% in 2024?
96% chance