Two of my friends had a kid, who is now ~3.5 years old. She seems to be pretty normal for her age, intellect-/skill-wise. This market resolves YES if, at any point before 2040, I think she has displayed greater competence in some knowledge-work domain (e.g. art, writing, programming, people management, personal-assistantship) than the best commercially-available AI product in that domain. Else, NO on Jan 1 2040.

Edit 2023-03-26: by "knowledge work" I mean ~"anything people will pay you for that doesn't involve physical manipulation."