What will Rob Long's credence be that there exists a conscious AI system at end of 2024? | Manifold

What will Rob Long's credence be that there exists a conscious AI system at end of 2024?

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What will Rob Long's credence be that there exists a phenomenally conscious AI system by end of 2024?

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selling off, but not because my credence has gone up - just want to be not betting on this market and, ideally, forget about it for a while. so there’s no interference with said credence :)

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