Will a silly Manifold market wipe out humanity before 2030? | Manifold

Will a silly Manifold market wipe out humanity before 2030?

Basic

32

Ṁ1214

2030

1.3%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Someone/something will resolve YES if there is credible evidence of a non-trivial causal link between a silly Manifold market and the extinction of humanity. Resolves NO if, by the start of 2030, we are still here or extinction has been caused by something other than a silly Manifold market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Existential Risk

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predictedYES

Why are people so optimistic? Wake up!

@NicoDelon If your true odds are higher, you could buy YES.

predictedYES

@MartinRandall Touché

bought Ṁ1 YES

@NicoDelon Hedging.

This market doesn't count as a silly market. It is, like other "wiping out" markets, obviously very serious.

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