Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?
Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?
Plus
32
Ṁ18642026
17%
63%
No FTX-sized scandal
0.5%
Will mackaskill criminal charges
1.9%
MIRI sex scandal/coverup ala Ziz accusations
1.1%
Nick Bostrom racist email
2%
Nepotism hire of a big name EA is found to be taking money/bribes
9%
sexual harassment
6%
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The initial Time article.
The EA forum response/discussion.
I don't want to harmfully stir anything up, but I also would appreciate some markets focused on the social implications now. Some EAs, including myself, who were not particularly shaken by FTX feel much more unsettled being associated with the EA label after the Time article.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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